[Report] Unitaid: Oil price shocks could raise the cost of HIV medicines by up to 44%

Unitaid report

As geopolitical tensions continue to unsettle global energy markets, a new analysis from Unitaid warns that rising oil prices could significantly increase the cost of producing essential medicines, exposing an often-overlooked vulnerability in global health supply chains. 

The analysis models how sustained increases in oil prices affect production costs for tenofovir, lamivudine and dolutegravir (TLD) – the first-line HIV treatment used by more than 24 million people in low- and middle-income countries. It finds that manufacturing costs could rise by around 15% if oil reaches US$120 per barrel, and by as much as 44% at US$200 per barrel.  

The findings come as renewed instability in the Middle East, concerns over the Strait of Hormuz and volatile energy markets have once again highlighted how quickly geopolitical shocks can ripple through global supply chains. While discussions often focus on shipping and transport costs, the analysis finds that the greatest exposure lies much earlier in the pharmaceutical manufacturing process. 

Read more about the analysis and access the report here.