The second edition of CHAI’s HIV Market Impact Memo highlights the ongoing impact of cuts to HIV services across low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Drawing on data from 13 LMICs, the analysis warns that millions could face preventable illness and death if urgent action is not taken.
The scope of the crisis
- Up to 68% reductions in oral PrEP initiations, HIV testing and monitoring, and treatment initiations (Q4 2024 – Q1 2025)
- 850K additional HIV infections and 30K additional HIV-related deaths estimated in the next five years if anticipated reductions in international aid are realized
- ~9-15% budget reductions projected for Global Fund grant cycle 7 (GC7) with more significant cuts expected for GC8
- 38% reduction in PEPFAR bilateral funding in proposed USG budget
- Critical shortages across the HIV care continuum
The memo underscores the importance of re-designing country-led systems to sustain HIV services amid disruptions. It also recommends that capacity-building and system-strengthening efforts focus on identifying and addressing gaps, reprioritizing goals, improving real-time supply visibility, and aligning with global procurement strategies.
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